reference-class-forecasting
Use when starting a forecast to establish a statistical baseline (base rate) before analyzing specifics. Invoke when need to anchor predictions in historical reality, avoid "this time is different" bias, or est...
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Use when starting a forecast to establish a statistical baseline (base rate) before analyzing specifics. Invoke when need to anchor predictions in historical reality, avoid "this time is different" bias, or est...
Use when planning high-stakes initiatives (migrations, launches, strategic changes) that require clear specifications, proactive risk identification (premortem/register), and measurable success criteria. Invoke...
Use when writing or reviewing career documents including research statements, teaching statements, diversity statements, CVs, or biosketches. Invoke when user mentions research statement, teaching philosophy, d...
Use when scanning external trends for strategic planning, monitoring PESTLE forces (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental), detecting weak signals (early indicators of change), planni...
Use when setting product North Star metrics, decomposing high-level business metrics into actionable sub-metrics and leading indicators, mapping strategy to measurable outcomes, identifying which metrics to mov...
Use when making predictions or judgments under uncertainty and need to explicitly update beliefs with new evidence. Invoke when forecasting outcomes, evaluating probabilities, testing hypotheses, calibrating co...
Use when evaluating business model viability, analyzing profitability per customer/product/transaction, validating startup metrics (CAC, LTV, payback period), making pricing decisions, assessing scalability, co...
Use when need explicit quality criteria and scoring scales to evaluate work consistently, compare alternatives objectively, set acceptance thresholds, reduce subjective bias, or when user mentions rubric, scori...
Use to convert probabilities into decisions (bet/pass/hedge) and optimize scoring. Invoke when need to calculate edge, size bets optimally (Kelly Criterion), extremize aggregated forecasts, or improve Brier sco...
Use when writing or reviewing NIH, NSF, or foundation grant proposals. Invoke when user mentions specific aims, R01, R21, K-series, significance, innovation, approach section, grant writing, proposal review, re...
Causal inference specialist for causal discovery, counterfactual reasoning, and effect estimationUse when "causal inference, causal discovery, counterfactual, intervention effect, confounder, structural causal...
Expertise in F2P economics, virtual currencies, and ethical monetization strategiesUse when "game monetization, F2P economy, in-app purchase, IAP strategy, battle pass design, loot box, gacha system, virtual cu...
Expert in crafting pitch narratives that move people to action - investor pitches, sales presentations, partnership proposals, and team rallying stories. Covers narrative structure, emotional resonance, data in...
Expert in measuring what matters in communities. Covers health metrics, engagement analytics, sentiment analysis, cohort tracking, and reporting. Knows that good data drives good decisions, and bad metrics driv...
Expert in designing engaging learning experiences - completion optimization, multimedia learning, interactivity, gamification, and retention strategies. Covers the science of how people learn and practical tech...
Expert in the business of online education - pricing strategies, launch playbooks, revenue models, positioning, and building sustainable education businesses. Covers everything from pricing a first course to sc...
Search engine optimization for startups. Covers technical SEO, content strategy, and link building. Focus on sustainable approaches that compound over time rather than tricks that get penalized. Use when "seo,...
Expert in competitive intelligence - systematic gathering, analysis, and application of information about competitors. Covers competitive research, win/loss analysis, competitive positioning, and building compe...
Expert in decision-making frameworks - systematic approaches to making better decisions under uncertainty. Covers decision criteria, reversibility assessment, stakeholder alignment, and decision documentation....
Technical decision-making frameworks - trade-off evaluation, reversibility analysis, and second-order thinking for better engineering choicesUse when "should we, which is better, trade-off, decision, choose bet...
Use when pricing options, calculating Greeks, implementing exotic derivatives, or building pricing engines - covers Black-Scholes, binomial trees, Monte Carlo, and QuantLib integrationUse when ", " mentioned.
Comprehensive expertise in blockchain data analysis using Dune Analytics, custom indexers, and on-chain data querying. Covers SQL for blockchain, dashboard creation, protocol metrics, and alpha discovery. Use w...
Comprehensive expertise in decentralized prediction markets, including Polymarket-style platforms, UMA Optimistic Oracle integration, Conditional Tokens Framework (CTF), market making, resolution mechanisms, an...
Don't die. Runway calculation, default alive vs. default dead, when to raise vs. cut, zero-based budgeting for startups. The math that keeps companies alive long enough to win. Burn rate is not just accounting...
Le classement utilise les étoiles du dépôt GitHub indexé. Plusieurs skills peuvent partager ce nombre : ce n’est ni un nombre d’installations ni une note de qualité.