reference-class-forecasting

功能与用途

Use when starting a forecast to establish a statistical baseline (base rate) before analyzing specifics. Invoke when need to anchor predictions in historical reality, avoid "this time is different" bias, or establish outside view before inside view analysis. Use when user mentions base rates, reference classes, outside view, or starting a new prediction.

快速开始

请根据来源仓库和你的 AI 工具说明安装此技能。先阅读技能文件和依赖要求，再添加到工作流。