manifold

# Manifold Markets

Use this skill to read from Manifold Markets (search markets, fetch probabilities, inspect public user info) and to place trades/comments with explicit confirmation.

Write actions require `MANIFOLD_API_KEY` (in the environment or configured via OpenClaw skill entries).

Base URL: `https://api.manifold.markets/v0`

Docs: https://docs.manifold.markets/api

## Read tasks

### Search markets

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?term=AI+safety&limit=5"
```

Tip: replace spaces with `+` (or URL-encode). If you have `jq`, format results:

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?term=AI+safety&limit=5" | jq '.[] | {id, slug, question, outcomeType, probability, createdTime, creatorUsername}'
```

### List newest markets

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/markets?limit=10"
```

With `jq`:

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/markets?limit=10" | jq '.[] | {id, slug, question, outcomeType, probability, closeTime}'
```

### Get market details (by ID)

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID"
```

Binary markets usually expose `probability` (0..1). Other market types may not have a single probability field.

### Get market details (by slug)

The slug is the portion of the Manifold URL after the username (e.g. `.../Alice/my-market-slug` → `my-market-slug`).

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/MARKET_SLUG"
```

### Inspect a user (by username)

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME"
```

### List bets for a user

If you have `jq`:

```bash
USER_ID="$(curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME" | jq -r '.id')"
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?userId=$USER_ID&limit=50"
```

Without `jq`, fetch the user JSON and read the `id` field, then use it:

```bash
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME"
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?userId=USER_ID&limit=50"
```

## Write...